Acetic acid Q4-2026 price outlook (China FOB)
China FOB acetic acid (CAS 64-19-7) baseline + 30-day forward, validated against three Yangtze-delta exporter quotes and the latest Sinopec turnaround calendar.
TL;DR
China FOB acetic acid is trading USD 365–410/t in early Q4 2026, +6% quarter-on-quarter as Yangzi turnarounds tighten supply. We expect the baseline to rebase to USD 380–425/t by mid-Q4 once two of the three planned BP / Sinopec maintenance windows close.
What moved the baseline
- Sinopec Yangzi 600 kt/yr unit — turnaround 14 Sep – 02 Nov 2026
- BP Nanjing 1.0 Mt/yr unit — turnaround 22 Oct – 18 Nov 2026
- Methanol feedstock CFR China up 8% Q3 → Q4 (winter heating draw)
- VAM downstream demand resilient (paint + adhesive seasonality)
Recommended buyer action
- Lock 2026-Q4 tonnage now if your forward cover is < 6 weeks — spot offers will widen as Nov/Dec maintenance hits.
- Hedge methanol exposure with a 60-day forward; methanol is the #1 driver of acetic acid CFR.
- Audit your supplier's RFCC slate — three of the Yangzi exporters source from the same fluid catalytic cracker; a single outage can suspend 35% of merchant supply.
Methodology
Quotes solicited 12-25 May 2026 from three exporters (>50 kt/yr each) for 200 t FOB Shanghai. Forward curve uses methanol-CFR + naphtha-CFR regression with 18-month rolling fit (R² 0.81).
Frequently asked
Is the Q4 2026 outlook bullish or bearish for acetic acid?
Mildly bullish — we expect FOB to rebase ~5% higher (USD 380–425/t) by mid-Q4 once Yangzi turnarounds peak in late October.
Why is methanol so important to the acetic acid baseline?
About 60% of merchant Chinese acetic acid is made from methanol via the Cativa/Monsanto carbonylation route, so methanol CFR moves the floor price more than any other input.
Can I source from a non-Yangzi region to avoid the turnaround dip?
Shandong and Inner Mongolia capacity exists but with a 6-8 USD/t freight premium to Shanghai port. We can quote on FOB-Qingdao if logistics matter more than headline price.
What's the typical FCL minimum for acetic acid orders?
20 t in 200-kg HDPE drums (one 20' container) or 22 t bulk in an ISO tank. Below 20 t we route via groupage with 5-7 day extra lead time.